Pitcher wins: the fake stat
A pitcher throws 8 innings, allows 1 run… and 'loses'. Another allows 6 runs and 'wins'. What is this stat measuring?
The 'win' goes to one pitcher per team victory based on rules written in the 1800s: the starter must go 5 innings and leave with a lead his team never gives up. Everything that actually decides that — how many runs his offense scores, whether the bullpen holds it — is out of his hands.
Run support is destiny
A mediocre pitcher on a juggernaut offense can go 16-6. An ace on a terrible team can go 8-14 with a better ERA. The W-L record is mostly measuring the other 25 guys on the roster.
Modern usage makes it sillier: starters average barely 5 innings now, and 'wins' routinely go to whichever reliever happened to be standing there. Analysts stopped using pitcher wins years ago. You can too — Level 3's FIP is the replacement.
How this stat lies to you
- It credits/blames the pitcher for his offense's run scoring.
- It depends on bullpen behavior after he leaves the game.
- A 'quality start wasted by the bullpen' and a 'gift win' look identical in the record.
Check yourself
1. What does a pitcher's W-L record mostly measure?
2. A starter allows 1 run in 8 innings; his team loses 1-0. What does he get?