Capstone: spot the fluke
Three hitters are outperforming. One is real, one is lucky, one is Coors. Can you tell them apart?
Level 2's toolkit is a three-question checklist for any surprising stat line: (1) Is the BABIP sustainable for this player? (2) Where were the games played? (3) Is the sample big enough for this stat to mean anything yet?
How this stat lies to you
- The checklist finds candidates, not verdicts — some 'flukes' are early breakouts. Level 4's x-stats are the tiebreaker.
Check yourself
1. A career .295-BABIP hitter is at .385 BABIP with a .320 AVG in June. Your call?
2. Two identical .880 OPS seasons: one in a 95 park, one at Coors (112). Adjusted, who was better?
3. In April, which is the LEAST meaningful of these?